WP5 – Implications

Objectives

The main objective of WP5 is to evaluate the consequences of the previously obtained assessments looking at the broader socio-economic implications, with emphasis on the cross-feeding between scales (application of local measures to global scale with a robust parameterization of e.g. coastal cities’ flood impacts). For the socio-economic dimension we shall look at similarities and differences between scales, and where the proposed interventions and conclusions can or cannot be applicable to other scales (e.g. suitability of costly coastal solutions such as employed now in various stretches of EU coast for other countries and economic levels of development).

WP5 will address the implications of the obtained results considering separately the direct impacts, the indirect impacts, and the policy implications. We shall update previous work on adaptive capacity and the demand for safety using the latest available data on protection levels and natural hazards, including the results of our calculations and the latest insights into the decision making under (deep) uncertainty. Regarding the indirect impact, we will engage in two activities. First, we will replicate earlier research estimating the general equilibrium effects of sea level rise – that is, the propagation of the impact through markets to other sectors and other countries. Advancing on previous studies, we will, for the first time, include changes in transport costs due to the impairment of harbour facilities. Second, we will statistically estimate the impact of subsidence (i.e. of relative sea level rise under present conditions) on economic performance. We will do this for the counties of the USA and, data permitting, the NUTS3 regions of Europe, considering the risk spreading strategies advocated in our project.

Finally, we will assess the implications at European and global levels for current and possible future international climate regimes. RISES-AM- will contribute to determining which cumulative emissions levels are commensurate with different notions and different levels of “dangerous” sea level rise (including storm surge contribution), among other variables. We will also estimate the investment in adaptation required in developing countries, which may be financed in part or in whole by developed countries.

The objectives of this work package can be summarized as:

• To update the economic impact and adaptation module of our long-term models (DIVA) and reassess the direct economic impacts of climatic factors such as sea level rise

• To assess the general equilibrium and growth impacts of climatic factors

• To assess the policy implications of climatic factors, particularly with regard to the determination of dangerous interference and adaptation assistance.