WP4 – Impact with additional adaptation

Objectives

la tordera 6 smallRISES-AM- aims to evaluate coastal zone impacts due to high-end sea-level rise and related scenarios across a range of time and geographical scales, including the effects of different adaptation strategies. Many local scale models and studies exist (e.g. Delft3D, POLCOMS, Premos, X-beach), but they are only applied to specific areas, whereas broad-scale models (e.g. CLIMSAVE, DIVA, Global Expo) are fewer in number, but provide more generic outcomes. Using the models and possible adaptation methods developed in WP3, we will carry out impact assessments with adaptation pathways at different scales, and compare results to determine how better outputs can be produced across scales.

The potential for tipping points in impacts will be evaluated through the case studies, so that they can be anticipated and analysed as appropriate at different scales. Reductions in coastal impacts, including uncertainties, will be explored through a range of adaptation measures to create a set of different pathways of adaptation. Exploring these pathways will help to determine synergies and trade-offs, and hence a basis for their integrated evaluation in WP5.

Thus the objectives of this work package are:

• To determine impacts with additional adaptation for key economic, social, and environmental sectors within selected case studies, including potential avoided damages, costs, and benefits

• To report on impacts associated with a set of different adaptation pathways for selected case studies, in order to reduce uncertainty, and to determine the risks and opportunities involved in these pathways and their time dependence

• To develop generic adaptation roadmaps for a range of case studies from the local to the global scale based on the developed typology and CAS

Similarly to WP3, this WP needs to efficiently move across different scales. To this end, there is also a “global” scale partner responsible for the WP coordinating with a focal “local” scale partner. As schematized in the Pert Diagram there will be a parallel development of WPs 3 and 4 based on a close coordination throughout RISES-AM- development.

Description of work and role of partners

This WP, with 4 Tasks, will pursue an objective and homogeneous exchange of information across scales, looking for the development of a generic adaptation roadmap. It will address the performance under present and future climate and incorporate the novel types of coastal interventions here advocated, with emphasis on the additional adaptation required to face the present deficit (one of the RISES-AM- cornerstones). The elaboration of pathways will be based on a sequential approach, in line with the Comparative Assessment Structure (CAS) prepared in WP1. We shall start by a critical analysis of present strategies at local to global scales; they will represent the present level of knowledge, under present climatic conditions and the present level of coastal zone conflicts. This will be followed by an enlarged assessment incorporating the novel or “green” solution types covering the “accommodate-and-retreat” options for the coastal archetypes better suited for this approach (e.g. low-lying coastal areas under a high level of human constraints). This assessment will be the basis to determine the efficiency of the novel versus conventional solutions in terms of impact, cost (including energy consumption) and policy. From here we shall assess the suitability (within the proposed pathways) of the locally derived coastal interventions for application to regional/global scales, considering technical, economic,  social and political criteria, to meet the challenge of adapting flexibly and successfully, rather than adapting in a way that might limit future options and amplify problems in the long run. Following this logical sequence, the adaptation tipping points (as described in WP1) will be identified and characterized, combining the originally selected interventions with additional interventions (task 4.2) and therefore aggregating the results of WP3 and WP4. This will be used to a) assess the evolution of present coastal adaptation deficit and b) examine the implications for coastal risks under present and future climatic conditions.

Task 4.0. Co-ordination for adaptation and CAS (SOTON, HZG-focal point for local scale-, VU-IVM, Deltares)

Start: Month 18, End: Month 34

Co-ordination is required to ensure a smooth working relationship with other work packages (particularly WP1 and WP3) that are highly dependent on WP4 and vice versa. This task, together with Task 3.0, communicates and integrates the types of impacts and adaptation employed in each model, and how that relates between scales. It also co-ordinates with WP1 regarding typologies and the CAS. Where Task 3.0 includes a workshop to discuss models and their integration at different scales at the start of the project, this task co-ordinates a workshop for model users towards the end (Milestone 13), to facilitate the aggregation into a generic adaptation roadmap with policy implications (Task 4.3 and WP 5).

Task 4.1. Impact assessment with additional adaptation interventions (GCF, SOTON, CAU, VU-IVM, Deltares,

UPC, GeoEcoMar, NOC-NERC, HZG, IRTA)

Start: Month 18, End: Month 26

Building upon the new and innovative adaptation measures selected (Task 3.2) and implemented in our modelling tools (Task 3.3), this task will simulate impacts with these additional adaptation interventions at local, regional, and global scales for key social, economic, and environmental sectors (Milestone 11). To assess avoided damages, these will be compared to outputs from impacts without additional adaptation (Task 3.1). For the scenarios provided in WP2, impacts will be explored for each type of adaptation, building in uncertainties for long-term projections. Results will be compared across scales to help determine and validate broader model results. To help inform policy makers, our analysis will include the costs and benefits linked to different types of adaptation (Deliverable 4.1). The synergies and trade-offs with mitigation and adaptation will be also explored, together with their implications for key economic, social and environmental sectors (with WP5).

Task 4.2. Impact assessment with multiple additional adaptation interventions – pathways with reduced impact uncertainties – (UPC, HZG, SOTON, CAU, VU-IVM, Deltares, GeoEcoMar, NOC-NERC, GCF, IRTA)

Start: Month 18, End: Month 30

Previous studies and engineering experience tell us that portfolios of coastal adaptation measures are most effective in practice, and yet this is challenging to model. Based on results from Task 4.1 and Task 3.2, impacts due to multiple forms of adaptation will be analysed, to create sets of adaptation pathways for each case study. By applying multiple forms of adaptation, this will help to reduce both the magnitude, and importantly, the uncertainty in impacts and illustrate more realistic examples of coastal change. Selected case studies will look to identify the more effective adaptation pathways, and potential local tipping points. This will include adialogue with stakeholders so that it has local views and is policy relevant, building upon information gained at earlier workshops (Task 3.2). Synergies and trade-offs between potential adaptation and mitigation will also be explored. Where appropriate, this could lead to a ranking of potential adaptation options (multicriteria mapping) for a set of case studies and how these are time dependent, in terms of minimisation of impacts and type of area affected, efficiency, suitability (physical, ecological and human environments), local needs, source material/adaptation availability and costs (Milestone 12). Special efforts will be devoted to define and discuss the possible innovative options potentially suitable for high-end scenarios and their associated uncertainty. Results will be critically compared with impacts without additional adaptation (Task 3.1).

Task 4.3. Generic adaptation roadmap (SOTON, HZG, CAU, VU-IVM, Deltares, UPC, GeoEcoMar, NOC-NERC, GCF, UOS, IRTA)

Start: Month 24, End: Month 34

As appropriateness of adaptation varies in time and space and with geography, the more effective adaptation measures and pathways identified in Task 4.2 and Task 5.1, will be here further developed and applied in more generic terms; this will be based on the multi-criteria mapping from Task 4.2 applied to the coastal and  adaptation typologies developed in WP1. This task will help to provide guidance to decision makers and help communicate lessons across case studies and scales (Milestone 12). This task will support the development of the CAS in the case studies to evaluate the use of concepts such as adaptation pathways and path dependency and adaptation tipping points, particularly in regions with high vulnerability and exposure to environmental hazards and climate change risks. This is a significant improvement compared to many existing studies that only consider the ‘end-game’ of adaptation and not the ‘pathway’ for getting there. These pathways may be of particular relevance under high-end scenarios, where uncertainty of future climate impacts is large. The applicability of the generic outcomes and lessons learnt from local scales will, where possible, be applied to other European coasts, plus a number of other regional and global cases (accounting for socio-economic and geographical differences where possible) to provide a better assessment of impacts and adaptation costs, including avoided damage (for WP5) under a fuller range of adaptation measures, thus reducing uncertainties (Deliverable 4.2).