WP3 – Impact without additional adaptation

Objectives

image07RISES-AM- aims to evaluate coastal zone impacts due to high end climatic conditions and for the associated socio-economic projections across a range of time and geographical scales. These scenarios are developed in WP2. In WP3, for each of the selected case study regions, we will improve existing modelling tools identified in task 1.3, in order to be able to use the first (month 12) scenarios from WP2 to carry out initial impact assessments per selected case study, assuming a Business as Usual (BaU) adaptation condition (i.e. no additional adaptation compared to those currently in place or planned). In WP3, each selected case study, categorised according to the typologies developed in Task 1.1, will develop plausible adaptation options, drawing on and adding to the initial catalogue developed in Task 1.2, by means of workshops with relevant stakeholders. Finally, the models used to carry out the aforementioned impact assessments with initial (existing) high-end scenarios and BaU adaptation conditions will, where possible, be improved and/or upgraded so as to be able to simulate the impacts with additional adaptation; the actual simulation of these impacts takes place in WP4. It is essential that WP3 and WP4 work in a well-co-ordinated manner, and therefore the leads of WP3 and WP4 will also play a major role in the coordination of each other’s WP, to ensure full integration and consistency. The main objectives of this WP are thus:

• To improve and upgrade a range of existing impact assessment tools and models to facilitate their use with the high-end climate scenarios

• To carry out assessments of the impacts of high-end climate change scenarios for a selection of case studies, assuming Business as Usual (BaU) adaptation (no additional adaptation)

• To develop plausible, novel adaptation measures for selected case studies

• To further develop aforementioned tools and methods to incorporate the novel adaptation measures proposed in their impact assessment capability

Description of work and role of partners

The WP is divided into 4 tasks. Each of the selected case studies will individually carry out each of the tasks, with the exception of task 3.0 (which will be carried out by the WP lead only). The development of this WP clearly needs to efficiently move across the different considered scales. In order to facilitate this, the lead of the WP (representing the global dimension) will be coordinated with a partner who acts as focal point for the “local” scale studies. The 4 tasks can be summarised as follows:

Task 3.0. Cross-case coordination (VU-IVM, IRTA-focal point for local scale-, SOTON, Deltares)

Start: Month 1, End: Month 24

Co-ordination is required to ensure a smooth working relationship with other work packages (particularly WP1 and WP4) that are highly dependent on WP3 and vice versa. The main coordinating activities are to ensure that each case study follows the same protocol (i.e. the Cross-scale Assessment Structure from WP1) and to monitor that the case studies keep to the time-planning. This task, together with Task 4.0, communicates and integrates the types of impacts and adaptation employed in each case, and how that relates between scales. It also co-ordinates with WP1 regarding typologies and the CAS. Because of that there is a contribution here from the leads of WPs 4 and 1, together with the local scale focal partner. Task 3.0 includes a workshop (Milestone 7) to discuss existing models and their integration at different scales at the start of the project. Tasks 3.1-3.3 are carried out by each selected case study, and are led by the relevant case study leads, reporting back to the overall task leader.

Task 3.1. Impact of high end scenarios under Business as Usual (BaU) strategy (IRTA plus the relevant case-study leaders)

Start: Month 1, End: Month 24

Based on initial meetings between the case study partners and the outcome from the inventory of modelling tools (Task 1.3), as well as the workshop listed in task 3.0, a selection will be made of the tools and methods to be adjusted for carrying out the initial BaU impact assessments (Milestone 8). These (existing) models will then be improved to be able to handle the high-end climate change scenarios developed in WP2 (starting with the existing projections) following the gap analysis of methods and tools performed under task 1.3. Following the adjustment of the tools, these will be the basis for a quantification of physical, socioeconomic and ecological impacts of the high-end scenarios under BaU adaptation conditions. The results of the global work will identify potential vulnerability hotspots and areas where impacts are potentially greatest. In selected cases, a nested hydro-morphodynamic modelling sequence, including also the spatial dimension (landscape modelling) will be applied to characterize the impact of extreme (storm) events. This will be combined in risk terms with the impact of long term trends, to produce a set of cross-scale impact assessments under BaU (Deliverable 3.1).

Task 3.2. Adaptation options per case study under BaU (VU-IVM plus the relevant case-study leaders)

Start: Month 12, End: Month 24

Based on a preliminary impact assessment (BaU adaptation conditions) from Task 3.1, each case will begin with a stakeholder workshop or stakeholder meetings involving scientists, policy-makers, and practitioners involved in climate change impact assessment and adaptation planning. The main aim of the workshop is to select potential adaptation options for reducing the impacts simulated in Task 3.1. The adaptation options will be drawn from the initial catalogue developed in Task 1.2, but will add case-specific novel options where these are suggested by the stakeholders (Milestone 9). Similarly, the additional novel options identified here, will feed into an update of the catalogue produced in WP1. The results will contribute to the cross-scale impact assessments under BaU (Deliverable 3.1).

Task 3.3. Tool adjustment/generalisation to incorporate the effects of proposed adaptation options (VU-IVM plus the relevant case-study leaders)

Start: Month 6, End: Month 24

Each case study will further develop the methods and tools from Task 1.3 (as necessary), in order to incorporate the adaptation options from Task 3.2 into their assessment capability. Key to this process is the role of uncertainty in model projections, how to portray uncertainty and model calibration (past) and validation (present). In some cases, an approach that also includes space (such as landscape or shoreline modelling) will be considered to better reproduce the coupling between scales and processes. The inclusion of these adaptation options in the model coding (Milestone 10) is expected to form a major task. Once the tools and methods have been further developed (Deliverable 3.2), they will be used in WP4 to carry out the impact assessments including additional adaptation.